Daily Market Report of Currency, Equity, Commodity and Bonds
Market Report for Wednesday, 04 November 2026
Headlines
• Rupee gains 13 paise to 94.71 on strong FII buying and softer crude; US midterm results awaited
• Wall Street: S&P 500 gains 0.4% and Nasdaq 0.8% as chips rebound on Election Day; Dow falls 0.4%
• Asian shares mixed ahead of US midterm results; Nikkei down about 3%, Kospi reverses early gains
• Brent settles at $103.60, lowest close since 7 October, on US-Iran talk hopes; spot gold near $3,921
Currency Market
Indian Rupee Market
The rupee settled 13 paise higher at 94.71 against the US dollar on Tuesday , supported by foreign fund inflows into a rallying equity market and easing crude, although a recovery in oil prices from the day’s lows capped the gains. It had fallen 8 paise to 94.84 on Monday after gaining 50 paise on Friday. Forex traders expect USD/INR to trade between 94.40 and 95.00, with Brent near $104, FPI flows and the dollar’s reaction to the US midterm results the key drivers, while expectations of a change in long-term capital gains tax also support sentiment.
FIIs bought equities worth Rs 6,836.81 crore on Tuesday, their third straight day of net buying and the biggest single-day purchase since October 2025, while DIIs sold Rs 3,678.85 crore, according to exchange data. In November so far, FIIs have bought Rs 9,952 crore while DIIs have sold Rs 4,071 crore.
Other Currency Market
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 101.87 on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected US job openings (JOLTS at 7.52 million) lifted Treasury yields, with the yen and the Australian dollar each down about 0.5% against the dollar. The dollar softened in Asian trade on Wednesday as investors waited for the US midterm election results. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates on Tuesday in a 6-3 vote, to an 18-year high.
The euro was little changed near $1.12. Eurozone flash October CPI is due today (forecast 4.0% year-on-year from 3.8%) and the Riksbank also decides today, while the Bank of England is expected to raise rates on Thursday (market probability about 96%).
Bonds Market / Fed:
Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected job openings and factory orders data, with the 10-year yield up about 4-5 bps at roughly 4.95%, the 2-year at 4.61% and the 30-year at 5.32%. The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hike, and markets price about an 85% chance of a quarter-point hike at the December 8-9 meeting. The US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement is due today, followed by ADP and ISM services data, with the October jobs report due on Friday.
Equity Markets
Indian Equity Market
Indian benchmark indices are likely to open cautiously, with early GIFT Nifty indications pointing to a flat to mildly negative start as investors book profits after four straight sessions of gains and await the US midterm election results; Democrats are favoured to win the House, while the Senate remains a close contest. Brent near $103 and a firm rupee are supportive, but a fall of about 3% in Japan’s Nikkei and weaker US futures (S&P 500 futures down 0.5%, Nasdaq futures down 0.9%) weigh on sentiment.
The Sensex jumped 1,225.07 points (1.62%) to 76,917.85 and the Nifty gained 370.05 points (1.58%) to 23,810.85 on Tuesday, their fourth straight session of gains, as FMCG, realty, auto and private bank stocks led the rally on strong Q2 earnings, softer crude oil, renewed foreign buying and hopes that the government may cut or scrap the long-term capital gains tax. The Nifty Midcap 100 index rose 1.06% and the Smallcap 100 index 0.31%, and 38 of the 50 Nifty stocks advanced. BSE Ltd, Tata Consumer Products, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel and Nestle India were among the top gainers.
Jio Platforms listed on October 28 at Rs 1,358, a 21.36% premium to the IPO price of Rs 1,119, and ended its debut session at Rs 1,419 on the NSE, about 27% above the issue price. India’s October services PMI is due during the session, and the September-quarter earnings season continues.
Technical Analysis
USD/INR last closed at 94.71 on Tuesday, well below the all-time high of 96.96 hit in May. The 94.30-94.40 zone (near the October 22 low) is the support to watch, while 95.00 is the immediate resistance and 97.00 remains the upside risk if the RBI’s support fades.
The Nifty closed at 23,810.85 on Tuesday, above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 23,783 and above its short-term moving averages (about 23,125 and 22,899). The 23,780 level is the immediate support, followed by 23,200, while 23,900 (near the 200-day EMA) is the resistance, with 24,000-24,216 the next hurdle on a sustained breakout.
Other Equity Market
Wall Street ended mixed on Election Day as chip stocks rebounded. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.83% to 25,372.01 and the S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 7,568.92, ending a three-day losing streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38% (197.26 points) to 51,786.72, weighed down by Apple, which slipped nearly 2% on a weak forecast. AMD, Broadcom and Micron each gained 2% or more, and decliners outnumbered gainers by about 1.7 to 1. After the close AMD jumped on strong results and a faster-than-expected 2027 growth forecast, but S&P 500 futures were down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures down 0.9% on Wednesday as results of the midterm elections started coming in, with Democrats favoured to take the House and both parties fighting for the Senate.
Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed early signs that Democrats could win control of Congress. Japan’s Nikkei, returning from a holiday, fell nearly 3% to about 61,205 in late-morning trade, while South Korea’s Kospi opened 2.4% higher but turned lower to around 5,591 after sliding 3.6% to 5,649 on Tuesday, when Taiwan’s index also fell 3.6% as a chip sell-off deepened. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.4% in early trade, helped by AMD’s strong results.
Commodity Market
Oil Market
Oil prices fell for a second session on Tuesday on hopes of a diplomatic end to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Brent January futures fell $1.17, or 1%, to settle at $103.60 a barrel, the lowest close since October 7, while WTI December futures fell 37 cents to $96.09, the lowest since October 14. This followed Monday’s 7.6% plunge in Brent ($8.66) to $104.77 on signs of progress in Qatar-mediated US-Iran talks, although prices rebounded briefly on Tuesday after a limited US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides are still far from a deal, and ING cautioned that it is too early to assume escalation risks have passed; Russia, Ukraine and the US will hold peace talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect energy flows. Brent near $103, against $116.72 on October 23, eases concerns in India about imported inflation and corporate margins; US crude inventory data is due today.
Gold Market
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,921 an ounce on Tuesday as a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields weighed, and was little changed in Asian trade on Wednesday. Gold lost about 7% and silver about 15% in October, and silver futures are now near $49.
Gold remains under pressure from rate-hike expectations (about 85% for a December Fed hike) and oil-driven inflation worries, with the dollar’s direction after the US midterm results and Friday’s US jobs report the next key drivers.
Economic Calendar
| Economic Events | 04-11-2026 | ||||
| Time | Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| Today | IN | India Services PMI (Oct) | |||
| 14:30 | EU | HCOB Final Services PMI (Oct) | 51.7 | 51.7 | |
| 15:30 | EU | CPI Flash Estimate y/y (Oct) | 4.0% | 3.8% | |
| 18:45 | US | ADP Employment Change (Oct) | 67K | 90K | |
| 19:00 | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement | |||
| 20:30 | US | ISM Services PMI (Oct) | 54.8 | 54.9 | |
Disclaimer: All information in this report is collected from various sites on the internet. Although we have taken all precautions for the correct representation of data, we do not take any responsibility for any errors and omissions. The technical analysis and views expressed are the author’s views. We are not responsible for any losses on account of following the same.
Sources
Prepared by
Kaustubh Khobragade
(Research Analyst)